Why technological progress is so hard to predict

New inventions (https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691233079/how-progress-ends) often cause great excitement (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk:2083/publications/the-technology-trap-capital-labor-and-power-in-the-age-of-automation) yet can take years (https://oms-www.files.svdcdn.com/production/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf) to catch on. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Peter Thal Larsen talks to Carl Benedikt Frey of Oxford University about the erratic history of technology (https://www.reuters.com/podcasts/the-big-view/what-china-has-teach-us-about-technology-podcast-2025-09-02/) – and what it tells us about artificial intelligence (https://www.reuters.com/podcasts/the-big-view/perks-penalties-waging-economic-war-podcast-2025-07-22/) . Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement (https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/privacy-statement.html) for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices (https://megaphone.spotify.com/about-advertisements) to opt-out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices (https://megaphone.fm/adchoices)